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If he decides to run for president—as he might (or might not) announce soon—he’ll lose. Not just his own race, but also other GOP candidates up and down the ticket.
The evidence is in: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis shellacked Charlie Crist and Republicans swept statewide offices for the first time since post-Civil War Reconstruction era, in spite of former President Donald Trump’s shenanigans. In fact, Trump’s effort to discredit DeSantis might even have helped the Republican governor win his second term.
Recall how Trump’s endorsement was supposed to be the gold plating of Republican candidates. Well, it helped some of them win the party’s primary election, but not the generation election. According to Sky News Data and ForensicsUnit, Trump officially endorsed 174 of the 430 Republican House candidates. It concluded: “…[I]nitial analysis of their results suggests he didn’t help them very much. Counties with candidates backed by Trump increased Republican vote share by an average of 2.1 percentage points compared with the 2020 election, far less than the 8 percentage points gained by the Republicans in counties where he didn't announce support.” [Emphasis added.]
Perhaps not the kiss of death. Yet: Many voters approve of Trump policies, but not Trump. DeSantis’ policies and actions mirrored Trump’s policies, all done without the loathsome Trump’s active backing. In fact, all done despite Trump’s transparent determination to eliminate DeSantis as a possible competitor in the 2024 presidential election.
There’s Trump’s reference to DeSantis as Ron "DeSanctimonious." Great, just what we Republicans need—a destructive intraparty battle that will ensure a Democratic victory. Even more, there’s Trump’s ominous warning that he would bring up the governor’s “not very flattering” past is he decides to run.
He told Fox News: “I think if he runs, he could hurt himself very badly. I really believe he could hurt himself badly. I think he would be making a mistake, I think the base would not like it — I don’t think it would be good for the party….I would tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering — I know more about him than anybody — other than, perhaps, his wife."
Typical of a candidate who typically called his fellow Republicans stupid names in the 2016 primary and demanded that Georgia GOP Gov. Brian Kemp t resign. Yes, Trump is very, very popular with some of my Republican friends. But I’ve argued that while Trump will have an excited and supportive base, it’s far from enough to win the moderate and independent vote that any candidate of either party must have to win.
Like DeSantis did.
Related: Donald Trump is an albatross around the Republican neck: The former president had a bad night while Ron DeSantis is rising
