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In a nutshell: In September, women favored Democrats by 14 points, according to a a New York Times/Siena College poll. Now, independent women favor Republicans by 18 points.
That's a humongous 32-point swing. In just one month. Staggering. Unheard of.
As a journalist, I have never seen a swing that large so quickly. I can't say in the history of political polling going back to the days of President Harry S Truman that such a rapid switch is unprecedented. But I can't find or remember it happening. It is certainly momentous.
And in this, the New York Times, buried the lede of the story--no surprise there. The amazing swing was mentioned in a few paragraphs deep in the story. The story led with news that everyone already knew: That Republicans were gaining an edge, as most voters worry about the economy. Either the editors are stupid or are so blinded by their partisanship that they missed what a student in a freshman in a journalism class would have spotted.
Hardly any need to explain the implications of such a massive shift. Ever since the U.S. Supreme Court scuttled Roe v. Wade, the 1972 decision that legalized abortion and, as is proper in a democratic country, will let the people decide what is legal, Democrats have been predicting a huge swing among independent women onto their side because if you're a women, you are pro-choice, no exceptions. Surely, the mid-term elections would be a referendum on abortion, Democratic strategists decreed. Abortion will become the biggest issue and allow their party to maintain its House majority and firmly control the Senate.
Instead, the voters who identified abortion as the top issue amounted a mere five percent of those surveyed.
We'll see whose political strategy emerges victorious. But so far the signs aren't auspicious. The Times story noted: "But the poll showed that Republicans opened up a 10-percentage point lead among crucial independent voters, compared with a three-point edge for Democrats in September, as undecided voters moved toward Republicans." [Emphasis added.]
A side note: If you are college educated, you're more likely to vote for Democrats. Puzzling. You'd think that the better educated wouldn't so easily ignore the pressing issues--from inflation to crime and the open border. Maybe that's a commentary about the lousy job that higher education is doing.
I suspected there'd be a shift of independent women last year when I saw the organizing and the activism of suburban women who were outraged the Democrats in general had infected America with their pandemic school closures and the high-and-mighty attitude of school administrators, union leaders and the Biden admonition, an attitude that unbelievably denied the right of parents to raiser their kids as they think is best.
More women who said they were Democrats were now voting for "the other guy. Think Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
Democrats for the most part still don't see it. At least the party's progressive wing. How long will it take intelligent, moderate Democrats to rise up and take their party back? If there is a party left after the mid-term elections.
